Urban Microclimate Variations, Green Space Distribution, and Heat Stress in Lahore: Implications for Urban Heat Island Mitigation and Public Well-Being

Abstract

Urban heat islands (UHIs) are increasingly recognized as a critical environmental and public health concern, particularly in densely populated cities such as Lahore, Pakistan. This study investigates the relationship between urban microclimate variations, green space distribution, and heat stress, with a focus on neighborhood-level disparities. Using a combination of satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and meteorological data, the research assessed microclimatic conditions across ten major neighborhoods in Lahore. Results indicate that highly urbanized areas, such as the Old City and Johar Town, recorded significantly higher LST (up to 40°C) and lower NDVI values (<0.25) compared to greener areas like DHA and Model Town, which exhibited lower LST (as low as 34°C) and higher NDVI (>0.45). The analysis revealed an inverse correlation between NDVI and LST, suggesting that vegetation plays a significant role in cooling urban environments. Furthermore, green space availability per capita was found to be well below World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations in most neighborhoods, intensifying heat-related risks and potentially contributing to social isolation due to reduced outdoor activity. These findings underscore the urgent need for integrated urban planning strategies, including increased green infrastructure, targeted tree planting, and equitable green space distribution to mitigate UHIs and enhance urban livability.