Border Politics and Bilateral Tensions: Analyzing Pakistan–Afghanistan Cross-Border Dynamics (2021–2025)

Abstract

The Pakistan–Afghanistan border has long been a geopolitical flashpoint, marked by fluctuating patterns of migration, trade, and security challenges. This study analyzes the evolving cross-border dynamics between 2021 and 2025, focusing on refugee movements, border security incidents, informal trade, and socioeconomic interactions between host and refugee communities. Using authentic data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the research employs a mixed-methods approach combining quantitative trend analysis with qualitative assessment of policy impacts. Results reveal that refugee inflows into Pakistan surged sharply in 2021–2022 following Afghanistan’s political transition but stabilized by 2024 due to enhanced border management and international assistance. Security incidents, including illegal crossings and militant infiltrations, declined by nearly 40% between 2022 and 2023, reflecting the effectiveness of Pakistan’s border fencing and surveillance measures. Economic data indicate a fluctuating but resilient trade relationship, with informal exchanges still constituting approximately 30% of total cross-border commerce. Social indicators show partial refugee integration within host communities, though economic competition and limited service access continue to generate localized tensions. The study concludes that while bilateral relations remain fragile, measurable progress has been achieved in border stabilization and trade normalization. However, persistent informal networks, humanitarian pressures, and governance disparities highlight the need for a coordinated regional framework emphasizing institutional trust, inclusive development, and people-centered border management. The findings contribute to policy debates on regional security, migration governance, and cross-border economic cooperation in post-2021 South Asia.