The Russia–Ukraine Conflict and Global Staple Agrifood Trade Networks: An Analysis of Structural Changes and Disruptions

Abstract

The Russia–Ukraine conflict has generated significant disruptions in global agrifood supply chains, particularly affecting the trade of staple agricultural commodities such as wheat, maize, sunflower oil, and barley. As two of the world's major agricultural exporters, Russia and Ukraine play a crucial role in ensuring global food security and maintaining the stability of international agrifood trade networks. This study examines the impact of the conflict on international staple agrifood trade networks by analyzing changes in trade flows, market connectivity, and network resilience before and after the outbreak of hostilities. Using trade network analysis, the research explores shifts in export-import relationships, the emergence of alternative trade routes, and the redistribution of market influence among exporting and importing countries. The findings indicate that the conflict has increased trade uncertainty, raised food prices, and intensified vulnerabilities in countries heavily dependent on imports from the Black Sea region. At the same time, new trade partnerships and diversification strategies have emerged, reshaping the structure of global agrifood networks. The study highlights the importance of strengthening supply chain resilience, promoting trade diversification, and enhancing international cooperation to mitigate the effects of geopolitical shocks on global food systems. The results provide valuable insights for policymakers, international organizations, and stakeholders seeking to improve food security and sustainable agricultural trade in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment.