Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Land Use Land Cover Dynamics, Synergy of Land Surface Temperature and Snow Cover Fluctuations in Gilgit River Basin, North Pakistan

Atta Ur Rahman; Osama Amjad; Hussain Zia; Muhammad Dawood

Authors

Atta Ur Rahman Department of Geography and Geomatics, University of Peshawar, Pakistan
Osama Amjad Department of Geography and Geomatics, University of Peshawar, Pakistan
Hussain Zia Department of Geography and Geomatics, University of Peshawar, Pakistan
Muhammad Dawood Department of Geography, Bahauddin Zakariya University of Multan, Pakistan

Keywords:

Land Surface Temperature, Snow Cover Dynamics, Remote Sensing, Google Earth Engine, Climate Change, Gilgit River Basin

Abstract

This study explores the spatio-temporal dynamics of Land Use Land Cover (LULC), Land Surface Temperature (LST) and snow cover in the Gilgit River Basin (GRB), North Pakistan during the period 1995-2024 using remote sensing and GIS technologies. Multi-temporal Landsat satellite imagery (Landsat 5, 7, 8 and 9) was applied through Google Earth Engine (GEE) to analyze LULC changes, relationship of LST and snow cover variability. Supervised classification i.e. random forest algorithm revealed significant LULC transformations. Settlement expansion shows, rapid increases were recorded in urban sprawl and population growth (+6,736.92 ha). These changes in built-up area are concentrated in areas under farmland. This is because of the conversion of vegetation cover and agricultural land into built-up areas. In the context of vegetation cover, the region observed the degradation in area under forest cover and loss of agricultural land (-43,676.09 ha). Similarly, in case of snow cover, critical changes were observed (-169,211.68 ha). The resultant values illustrate glaciers retreat along with limited snow accumulation. This is largely attributed to climatic change and rising temperature in the HKH region. As a result, it has a direct impact on river discharge and water security. Furthermore, growth in barren land (+203,535.44 ha), where positive changes in almost all the land use classes. Consequently, desertification, land degradation and loss of snow and vegetation cover occurred. Additionally, slight rise has been seen in water bodies such as +86.74 ha and the minor changes are due to glacial melting which temporarily increases the surface water. As a result, small lakes i.e. glacial and glacio-fluvial lakes were also developed. The analysis revealed that LST exhibited a strong warming trend (+0.17°C/year, *p* < 0.0001), with Monte Carlo simulations confirming its robustness (95% CI: +0.12°C to +0.22°C/year). Whereas, the snow cover declined markedly (−137.5 km²/year, *p* < 0.0001), showing a strong inverse correlation with LST_max (*r* = −0.897, *p* = 0.000). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Pearson Correlation (PC) highlighted the climate-driven reduction in snow cover and its linkage to rising temperature. The key findings underscore the basin’s vulnerability to climate change having significant implications for water security, hydrology and ecosystems. The study recommends integrated water management, land use regulations and climate-resilient agriculture to mitigate its adverse impacts. This research contributes to understanding elevation-dependent warming in mountainous regions and also to support policy formulation for sustainable resource management in the Upper Indus Basin.

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