Forecasting the Impacts of Climate Variability on Cotton Production in South Punjab, Pakistan

Nausheen Mazhar; Sohail Abbas; Muhammad Nasar-u-Minallah; Iqra Shahzadi; Maria Kamal; Faiqa Naseer

Authors

Nausheen Mazhar Lahore College for Women University
Sohail Abbas College of Geography and Environment, Konkuk University, Korea
Muhammad Nasar-u-Minallah Institute of Geography, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
Iqra Shahzadi Department of Environmental Sciences, Lahore College for Women University, Lahore, Pakistan
Maria Kamal Department of Geography, Lahore College for Women University, Lahore, Pakistan
Faiqa Naseer Department of Geography, Lahore College for Women University, Lahore, Pakistan

Keywords:

Forecasting, Climate Variability, Impacts, Cotton Production, South Punjab

Abstract

Cotton, an important crop in Pakistan, contributes 0.8% of GDP and 4.1% of total agricultural value added. However, it faces challenges such as a reduction in area under cultivation, unfavorable weather conditions, whitefly infestation, crop stunting, bollworms, and other insect pests. The objective of this study is to identify the factors contributing to the decline in cotton production in selected districts of southern Punjab in Pakistan during the period 2004-2020. The second objective of this study was an over-time analysis of secondary data to calculate compound growth and forecast area production and average yield in Punjab, Pakistan. Data was collected from secondary sources and analyzed using SPSS and Microsoft Excel. The results showed that Rahim Yar Khan and Khanewal had no impact on production, while Lodhran had a significant impact due to the minimum temperature. A decrease in minimum temperature by one unit led to a decrease in cotton production by 21947. Pearson's correlation showed a weak relationship between humidity and cotton yield in the study area. The time series analysis revealed that cotton production in Khanewal and Multan districts will increase in the future, while in Jhang, Sahiwal, Pakpattan, Vehari, and Rahim Yar Khan districts will experience a declining trend. Previous studies suggest that Pakistan’s crop production could be significantly affected by a reduction of rainfall, a 0.5-degree rise in temperature over the last three decades, and changes in the frequency of droughts and floods. This study aims to develop a policy framework involving suitable cotton varieties to improve cotton production and raise the country's GDP.

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