Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Meteorological Drought in Lahore (1995–2024)

Fatima Nazir Ali; Nimra Arshad; Nausheen Mazhar; Fatima Rani

Authors

Fatima Nazir Ali Department of Geography, Lahore College for Women University, Lahore, Pakistan
Nimra Arshad Department of Geography, Lahore College for Women University, Lahore, Pakistan
Nausheen Mazhar Department of Geography, Lahore College for Women University, Lahore, Pakistan
Fatima Rani Department of Geography, Lahore College for Women University, Lahore, Pakistan

Keywords:

Urban Resilience, Meteorological Drought, SPI & SPEI, Precipitation Variability

Abstract

Evaluating urban meteorology is essential for efficient water resource management, especially considering climate change and an increase in Urban population. It helps to understand the severity and scope of drought conditions, which enables improved planning and execution of drought response measures. This research paper examines long-term patterns of rainfall variability and drought situations in Lahore, spanning a period of 30 years (1995- 2024). Monthly rainfall data taken from the UCSB-CHG/CHIRPS dataset, along with potential evapotranspiration (PET) information from the TERRACLIMATE dataset, are being analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The whole dataset is processed by Google Earth Engine (GEE), with Lahore’s administrative boundaries used to define the Area of Interest (AOI). The analysis recognizes significant annual and spatial variability, with the mean annual Precipitation recorded at 65.35mm. Extreme years included 2021, with 184.77 mm, and 2019, in this year precipitation was only recorded at 13.06 mm, which highlights growing climatic inconsistencies. SPI values dipped as low as -2.6 in 2015 in the southern part of Lahore, indicating severe drought conditions, while northern Lahore experienced values as high as 1.7, denoting extreme wetness. SPEI values exhibited a similar pattern, with the southern region recorded -2.3 in 2024, reflecting ongoing moisture stress, contrasted by northern Lahore reaching 1.2 to 2, a marked improvement in hydrological balance. These results show that Lahore is becoming more and more vulnerable to both drought and flooding because of urban growth and changes in the monsoon. According to the findings, localized, data-driven climate adaptation policies that prioritize drought resistance, water conservation, and efficient urban planning are essential.

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