Impact of Path Dependence on Affordable Housing Delivery in Developing Countries – A Case Study of Pakistan

Saima Rafique; Obaidullah Nadeem

Authors

Saima Rafique University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1844-6356
Obaidullah Nadeem Department of City and Regional Planning, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore

Keywords:

Low-Income Housing, Path Dependence, Critical Juncture, Sustainable Governance, Social Constraints

Abstract

Affordable housing is a pressing global concern, especially in developing nations like Pakistan, where multiple factors have significantly influenced the housing landscape. Path dependence theory helps unveil such factors and their impact. Pakistan faces challenges in initiating new affordable housing projects due to entrenched institutional and policy patterns, as observed through an in-depth examination of its Federal and Provincial Government housing programs and their delivery mechanism. Purposive sampling was used to collect primary data through a semi-structured questionnaire, distributed via email to practitioners and academics to statistically validate the effect of path dependence on affordable housing delivery. A total of 200 valid responses were received from participants across Punjab. The outer loadings for the majority of indicators exceeded the 0.70 threshold, and bootstrapping results confirmed that all structural paths were statistically significant at p < 0.001. The structural model results confirm that Government Practices significantly influence both Institutional Social Factors (β=0.48, p < 0.01) and End Product Attributes (β=0.422, p < 0.05). The model explains 52.1% (R² = 0.521) of the variance in End Product Attributes, supporting the hypothesis that path-dependent policy legacies shape contemporary housing delivery.” Furthermore, the study provides empirical evidence using PLS-SEM. The results were verified through HTMT discriminant validity (all values < 0.85) and VIF statistics (all values < 5), ensuring a level of statistical rigor not commonly found in previous descriptive studies of the region. The study also highlights that local housing policies, better location planning, and understanding of the differences between cities are important for improving affordable housing delivery.

Author Biography

Saima Rafique, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan

Ms. Saima Rafique serves as an Assistant Professor of City and Regional Planning at the University of Engineering and Technology (UET), Lahore, Pakistan. A dedicated Ph.D. scholar, her research interests focus on urban housing, urban economics, affordable housing, and urban regeneration. With over a decade of experience in teaching and research, she has made significant contributions to the field of urban planning. She is a member of the Pakistan Council of Architects and Town Planners: Islamabad, PK.

Saima Rafique holds a distinguished academic record. She graduated with honors from UET, Lahore in 2001, earning a gold medal for her exceptional performance in City and Regional Planning. She further advanced her expertise with an MSc in the same field. Additionally, she holds an MBA with a double major in Marketing and Finance, where she was awarded the Dean’s Medal for outstanding performance at the Lahore School of Economics, alongside receiving University Merit Scholarship.

References

M. Helble, K. Ok Lee, and M. A. Gia Arbo, “How (Un)affordable is housing in developing Asia?,” Int. J. Urban Sci., vol. 25, no. S1, pp. 80–110, 2021, doi: 10.1080/12265934.2020.1810104.

G. Galster and K. O. Lee, “Housing affordability: a framing, synthesis of research and policy, and future directions,” Int. J. Urban Sci., vol. 25, no. S1, pp. 7–58, 2021, doi: 10.1080/12265934.2020.1713864.

Amy Soon; Consilz Tan, “An analysis on housing affordability in Malaysian housing markets and the home buyers’ preference,” Int. J. Hous. Mark. Anal., vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 375–392, 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-01-2019-0009.

“The Importance Of Affordable Housing In Terms Of Its Definition, Changing Image And Reframing In Society.” Accessed: May 19, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/388940706_THE_IMPORTANCE_OF_AFFORDABLE_HOUSING_IN_TERMS_OF_ITS_DEFINITION_CHANGING_IMAGE_AND_REFRAMING_IN_SOCIETY

K. Heylen, “Measuring housing affordability. A case study of Flanders on the link between objective and subjective indicators,” Hous. Stud., vol. 38, no. 4, pp. 552–568, 2023, doi: 10.1080/02673037.2021.1893280.

M. Lux and P. Sunega, “Using path dependence theory to explain housing regime change: The traps of super-homeownership,” Crit. Hous. Anal., vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 25–35, 2020, doi: 10.13060/23362839.2020.7.1.501.

A. S. Grønseth, K. Denizou, S. E. Glomdal, and S. Å. K. Johnsen, “Housing Qualities, Spaces and Dispositions for Low-Income Families: Effects on Experiences of Wellbeing, Home and Belonging.,” Stud. Health Technol. Inform., vol. 319, pp. 472–484, Nov. 2024, doi: 10.3233/SHTI240965.

C. Murray and D. Clapham, “Housing policies in Argentina under President Macri (2015–2019): a divided nation perpetuating path dependency,” Int. J. Hous. Policy, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 491–512, Oct. 2020, doi: 10.1080/19491247.2020.1775929.

“An assessment of Pakistan’s urban policies 1947-1997 - PubMed.” Accessed: May 11, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12294610/

I. Alvi, “The Informal Sector In Urban Economy : Low Income Housing in Lahore,” 1997.

“Role of Private Sector in Providing Affordable Housing in Lahore - ProQuest.” Accessed: May 11, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://www.proquest.com/openview/76e0ded61bc94d9848c96e13b6e77025/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=2032486

“Pakistan: the causes and repercussions of the housing crisis | IIED Publications Library.” Accessed: May 11, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://www.iied.org/10864iied?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=218994421&gbraid=0AAAAADnD0aPleFEYG-_at5CRulopP0cP3&gclid=Cj0KCQjw_IXQBhCkARIsADqELbIYOz0Bik6mOQoJ_pWLghOLjIseatlWO3tL56ZvgA9uBh-mAmJgoDQaAhEqEALw_wcB

S. Malik, R. Roosli, and F. Tariq, “Investigation of informal housing challenges and issues: experiences from slum and squatter of Lahore,” J. Hous. Built Environ., vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 143–170, Mar. 2020, doi: 10.1007/S10901-019-09669-9.

“(PDF) Appraisal of National Housing Policy-A Case of Pakistan.” Accessed: May 11, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328912789_Appraisal_of_National_Housing_Policy-A_Case_of_Pakistan

S. Malik, R. Roosli, F. Tariq, and N. Yusof, “Policy Framework and Institutional Arrangements: Case of Affordable Housing Delivery for Low-Income Groups in Punjab, Pakistan,” Hous. Policy Debate, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 243–268, Mar. 2020, doi: 10.1080/10511482.2019.1681018.

“Access to Khuda Ki Basti Housing | PDF | Economies.” Accessed: May 11, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://www.scribd.com/document/703128047/Access-of-Low-Income-People-to-Housing-KKB-Lahore

Azra Jabeen, Huang Xi Sheng, “Housing Crises in Pakistan: Review of Population Growth and Deficiencies in Housing Laws and Policies,” Int. J. Sci. Basic Appl. Res., vol. 24, no. 3, 2015, [Online]. Available: https://www.gssrr.org/index.php/JournalOfBasicAndApplied/article/view/4632

“Mera Pakistan Mera Ghar.” Accessed: May 19, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://www.sbp.org.pk/MPMG/index.html

Arnaldo Camuffo, Alfonso Gambardella, “A theory based analysis of path dependence,” Econ. Innov. New Technol., 2024, [Online]. Available: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10438599.2025.2584207

Emma Mulliner, Kieran Smallbone, “An assessment of sustainable housing affordability using a multiple criteria decision making method,” Omega, vol. 41, no. 2, pp. 270–279, 2013, [Online]. Available: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0305048312000928

B. Bo and H. Ruonavaara, “Introduction to the Special Issue: Path Dependence in Housing,” Housing, Theory Soc., vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 193–203, 2010, doi: 10.1080/14036090903326411.

“Path-Dependence - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics.” Accessed: May 11, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/path-dependence

Jean-Philippe Vergne, Rodolphe Durand, “The Missing Link Between the Theory and Empirics of Path Dependence: Conceptual Clarification, Testability Issue, and Methodological Implications,” J. Manag. Stud., 2010, [Online]. Available: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1467-6486.2009.00913.x

Y. C. Heo, “The Development of Housing Policy in Singapore and the Sources of Path Dependence,” Housing, Theory Soc., vol. 31, no. 4, pp. 429–446, Oct. 2014, doi: 10.1080/14036096.2014.915882.

P. Malpass, “Path Dependence and the Measurement of Change in Housing Policy,” Housing, Theory Soc., vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 305–319, Dec. 2011, doi: 10.1080/14036096.2011.554852.

Mirjam Schindler, Rita Dionisio, “A framework to assess impacts of path dependence on urban planning outcomes, induced through the use of decision-support tools,” Cities, vol. 115, p. 103256, 2021, [Online]. Available: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264275121001566

U. Sengupta, “State-led housing development in Brazil and India: a machinery for enabling strategy?,” Int. J. Hous. Policy, vol. 19, no. 4, pp. 509–535, Oct. 2019, doi: 10.1080/19491247.2018.1510076.

K. M. Stiphany and P. M. Ward, “Autogestão in an era of mass social housing: the case of Brazil’s Minha Casa Minha Vida-Entidades Programme,” Int. J. Hous. Policy, vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 311–336, 2019, doi: 10.1080/19491247.2018.1540739.

Camila Cardoso Leite, Mariana Giannotti, “Social housing and accessibility in Brazil’s unequal cities,” Habitat Int., vol. 127, 2022, [Online]. Available: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0197397522001254

Yahaya Ahmed, “The Affordable Housing in Nigeria using Critical Success Factors of Public Private Partnership,” Asia Proc. Soc. Sci., vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 74–77, 2019, doi: 10.31580/apss.v4i1.593.

“Sovereignty, Governmentality and Development in Ayub’s Pakistan: the Case of Korangi Township on JSTOR.” Accessed: May 11, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://www.jstor.org/stable/25835670

Musirah Farrukh, “The Naya Pakistan Housing Policy: An Economic Analysis,” Policy Perspect., vol. 28, 2021, [Online]. Available: https://journal.policy-perspectives.org/articles/volume_28/10_4079_pp_v28i0_3.html

“Radical Resistance Or Active Agency - The Case Of Korangi Town.” Accessed: May 11, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/365368425_RADICAL_RESISTANCE_OR_ACTIVE_AGENCY_-_THE_CASE_OF_KORANGI_TOWN

“Urban development in the Third World : internal dynamics of Lahore, Pakistan : Qadeer, Mohammad A. : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive.” Accessed: May 11, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://archive.org/details/urbandevelopment0000qade

“Aashiana Housing Project (AHP) – CPPG.” Accessed: May 11, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://cppg.fccollege.edu.pk/publications/aashiana-housing-project-ahp/

N. Javed, R. Hasan, and N. N. Qureshi, “Developing a National Urban Policy: A Case Study of Pakistan: From Messy and Hidden Urbanisation to Smart and Green Cities,” Dev. Natl. Urban Policies Ways Forw. to Green Smart Cities, pp. 121–146, Jan. 2020, doi: 10.1007/978-981-15-3738-7_5.

“ABAD International Expo on housing to kick off on Friday - Profit by Pakistan Today.” Accessed: May 11, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2018/05/03/abad-international-expo-on-housing-to-kick-off-on-friday/

“Cabinet decides to regularise Sindh’s katchi abadis formed from 1997 to 2011 - Pakistan - DAWN.COM.” Accessed: May 11, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://www.dawn.com/news/1685156

Joe F. Hair, Christian M. Ringle, “PLS-SEM: Indeed a Silver Bullet,” J. Mark. Theory Pract., vol. 19, no. 2, 2011, [Online]. Available: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2753/MTP1069-6679190202

J. F. Hair, J. J. Risher, M. Sarstedt, and C. M. Ringle, “When to use and how to report the results of PLS-SEM,” Eur. Bus. Rev., vol. 31, no. 1, pp. 2–24, Jan. 2019, doi: 10.1108/EBR-11-2018-0203/FULL/XML.

“(PDF) Relationship of big data analytics capability and product innovation performance using smartPLS 3.2.6: Hierarchical component modelling in PLS-SEM.” Accessed: May 11, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323704613_Relationship_of_big_data_analytics_capability_and_product_innovation_performance_using_smartPLS_326_Hierarchical_component_modelling_in_PLS-SEM

A. Sorensen, “Urbanization and developmental pathways: Critical junctures of urban transition,” Handb. Megacities Megacity-Regions, pp. 47–64, Jan. 2020, doi: 10.4337/9781788972703.00009.

M. Manville and P. Monkkonen, “Unwanted Housing: Localism and Politics of Housing Development,” Planning, Pract. Res., vol. 44, no. 2, pp. 685–700, Jun. 2024, doi: 10.1177/0739456X21997903.

Anita Vitriana, Sara Özogul, “The historical development of public housing in Indonesia: a path dependence analysis,” Int. J. Hous. Policy, vol. 26, no. 1, 2026, [Online]. Available: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19491247.2025.2482233

D. Goretzko, T. T. H. Pham, and M. Bühner, “Exploratory factor analysis: Current use, methodological developments and recommendations for good practice,” Curr. Psychol. 2019 407, vol. 40, no. 7, pp. 3510–3521, May 2019, doi: 10.1007/S12144-019-00300-2.

“Critical Success Factors For Affordable Housing: Evidence From Lower-Middle Income And High-Income Economies.” Accessed: May 19, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362020789_CRITICAL_SUCCESS_FACTORS_FOR_AFFORDABLE_HOUSING_EVIDENCE_FROM_LOWER-MIDDLE_INCOME_AND_HIGH-INCOME_ECONOMIES

“Regulating Private Housing Schemes In Punjab, Pakistan: Practical Implications And Remedies - ProQuest.” Accessed: May 19, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://www.proquest.com/openview/743b91cbb995946fa672ca464645888f/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=1616340

Sana Malik, “Exploring resource-wise stakeholder engagements for low-income housing development in urban Punjab, Pakistan,” J. Urban Manag., vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 201–216, 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jum.2024.01.002.

Arielle S. Selya, Jennifer S. Rose, “A Practical Guide to Calculating Cohen’s f2, a Measure of Local Effect Size, from PROC MIXED,” Front. Psychol., vol. 3, 2012, doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2012.00111.

P. K. Ozili, “The Acceptable R-Square in Empirical Modelling for Social Science Research,” SSRN Electron. J., Jun. 2022, doi: 10.2139/SSRN.4128165.

“(PDF) Discriminant validity assessment in PLS-SEM: A comprehensive composite-based approach.” Accessed: May 19, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356961783_Discriminant_validity_assessment_in_PLS-SEM_A_comprehensive_composite-based_approach

J. F. Hair, G. T. M. Hult, C. M. Ringle, M. Sarstedt, N. P. Danks, and S. Ray, “Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) Using R,” 2021, doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-80519-7.

B. Bengtsson, “Housing as a social right: Implications for welfare state theory,” Scan. Polit. Stud., vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 255–275, Dec. 2001, doi: 10.1111/1467-9477.00056;PAGE:STRING:ARTICLE/CHAPTER.

Ayaz Ahmed, “Housing Demand In Urban Areas of Pakistan,” Dep. Econ. PAKISTAN Inst. Dev. Econ. Islam., 2015, [Online]. Available: https://file.pide.org.pk/pdf/thesis/phd-economics-2000-ayazahmad--housing-demands-in-urban-areas-of-pakistan.pdf

“Affordable housing – Pakistan Banks Association.” Accessed: May 19, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://pakistanbanks.org.pk/service/affordable-housing/

ASAD JALAL SINDHU, “Development Of Affordable Housing Framework For Low-Income Households In Pakistan,” 2019, [Online]. Available: https://www.acash.org.pk/storage/topics/documents/Pakistan-Final-Draft_with-Appendices_Submitted_PDF_08-Nov-2019_compressed.pdf

Raimo P. Hämäläinen, Tuomas J. Lahtinen, “Path dependence in Operational Research—How the modeling process can influence the results,” Oper. Res. Perspect., vol. 3, pp. 14–20, 2016, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orp.2016.03.001.

“National Housing Policy 2025,” Gov. Pakistan Minist. Hous. Work., 2025, [Online]. Available: https://mohw.gov.pk/SiteImage/Misc/files/NATIONAL HOUSING POLICY 2025.pdf

“Chukwujekwu, I.E. ‘Facilitating low cost housing scheme: Which way forward in housing today’. Journal of the Association of Housing Corporation of Nigeria, 1(10): 0331-9598.2006.” Accessed: May 19, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://www.sciepub.com/reference/126718