Half a Century of Warming in Punjab, Pakistan: Statistical Evidence from 1970–2019

Zahoor Ul Hassan; Muhammad Yaseen; Syed Imran Hussain Shah; Arooj Naveed; Fazal Hussain Malik; Syed Irfan Hussain

Authors

Zahoor Ul Hassan Deptartment of Environmental Sciences, National College of Business Administration and Economics (NCBA&E), Lahore, Pakistan
Muhammad Yaseen Centre for Integrated Mountain Research, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
Syed Imran Hussain Shah Deptartment of Environmental Sciences, National College of Business Administration and Economics (NCBA&E), Lahore, Pakistan
Arooj Naveed Deptartment of Environmental Sciences, National College of Business Administration and Economics (NCBA&E), Lahore, Pakistan
Fazal Hussain Malik Deptartment of Environmental Sciences, National College of Business Administration and Economics (NCBA&E), Lahore, Pakistan
Syed Irfan Hussain Deptartment of Environmental Sciences, National College of Business Administration and Economics (NCBA&E), Lahore, Pakistan

Keywords:

Climate Adaptation, Long-Term Temperature Trends, Change Rate, Seasonal and Regional Temperature

Abstract

Regional temperature gradients affect how climate change is defined and assessed from varying perspectives. In this research, temperature trends in the Province of Punjab from 1970 to 2019 were examined. To assess the changes in temperature, the monthly means of temperature (Tmean), maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) were analyzed using Sen's slope estimator method. Several empirical techniques are applied to assess whether the trends are indeed significant, either positively or negatively, and to what extent diversity exists among different weather stations. Also considered are the expected values in the determination of a comprehensive account of temperature fluctuation and variation. The analysis indicates a significant increase in the mean temperature (Tmean) across Punjab, with a sharper increase from Northern Punjab to Southern Punjab. While maximum temperature (Tmax) shows a steep increase in southern and western regions, minimum temperature (Tmin) shows a predominantly increasing trend in Central Punjab. These findings are going to be useful to those making national policy who are trying to formulate strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study examines long-term temperature trends in Punjab, Pakistan, from 1970 to 2019 using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator methods. Results show a statistically significant warming trend, with mean temperature increasing at 0.04°C per year. Southern and Western Punjab experienced higher rates of warming compared to Northern regions. Maximum temperatures increased more sharply in the south, while minimum temperatures rose more prominently in central Punjab, indicating a declining diurnal temperature range. These findings highlight regional climate disparities and underscore the need for targeted adaptation strategies.

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