Evaluating Future Climate Projections in Upper Indus Basin through GFDL-ESM2M Model

Faiza Sarwar; Fareeha Tariq; Muhammad Shareef Shazil; Saira Batool; Nadia Mehrdin; Samreen Javed; Syed Amer Mahmood

Authors

Faiza Sarwar Institute of Geography, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
Fareeha Tariq Department of Space Science, University of the Punjab, Lahore
Muhammad Shareef Shazil Department of Space Science, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
Saira Batool Centre for Integrated Mountain Research (CIMR), University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
Nadia Mehrdin Department of Kashmir Studies, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
Samreen Javed Department of Space Science, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
Syed Amer Mahmood Department of Space Science, University of the Punjab, Lahore

Keywords:

Global Climate Model, GFDL-ESM2M, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), Future Projections.

Abstract

This study aims to examine the future climate projections in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). The Global Climate Model (GFDL-ESM2M) data was utilized to analyze two variables, namely precipitation and temperatures. The study focused on three distinct time periods: near century (2020-2040), mid-century (2041-2070), and end of century (2071-2099). This process involved the utilization of a downscaling technique that relied on the RCP4.5 scenario. The Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's slope estimate test will be employed to analyze the parameters of temperature and precipitation, enabling the identification of yearly, seasonal, and monthly patterns. The application of the MK and Sen's slope estimate approaches revealed a lack of statistical significance in the observed upward trend in yearly precipitation and temperature. Over the course of nearly a century, the average Coefficient of Variation for temperature exhibited a range of -67.5% to 308.9%. During the midcentury period, there was observed variation in the mean monthly rainfall across all months. Notably, the month of March exhibited the highest average rainfall of 274.2mm, while September had the lowest average rainfall of 31.9mm. The data exhibited a positive skewness, suggesting that there was a tendency for higher levels of rainfall towards the end of each month compared to the beginning. The data indicates that there is an upward trend in precipitation throughout the mid-century period in comparison to the near century, but a downward trend is observed towards the conclusion of the century. The temperature readings exhibit a constant upward trend from the early part of the century to the middle of the century, followed by a subsequent increase from the middle of the century to the end of the century. Furthermore, the data revealed that the highest amount of precipitation is experienced during the spring season, whereas the lowest amount of rainfall is recorded during autumn throughout all temporal intervals.

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